Personal Essay: 2023 Baltimore Orioles Season

Today—this afternoon, actually—begins the 2023 baseball season, and the Orioles will play their first game at Boston against the Red Sox.  There is much excitement in Orioles fans this year, and I’m no different!  Last year I mentioned how they had a miraculous season, their first winning season in six years, and three of those years with some of the worst winning percentage in the history of the game.  All those losing seasons gave us some great draft picks, and new General Manager, Mike Elias, really knows how to draft.  So last year we went 83-79 and just missed the playoffs.  This year we expect to make the playoffs, even though the predictions from the “experts” has us with a losing record again. 

But hope springs eternal in the human breast, especially in the breast of baseball fans!

Here’s what I’m predicting for the 2023 season.

I am predicting 90 wins, and that is going with the optimistic end of my range. The key in my thinking is the starting pitching. There is enough offense there (though that Franchy Cordero bat from spring training performance could really help) to contend, and the defense is superb. I think the position players are solid. The bullpen is good to excellent. I don’t know if they will repeat from last year’s performance, but definitely I think above average.

The starting pitching is the unknown. Gibson and Irvin, if they have expected years, are around .500 percentage pitchers who can give you innings. You don’t know what you’re going to get from Kremer, Bradish, and Wells. To make the playoffs I think two have to average to a .500 percentage while one has to leap to a TOR performance. We need one of these guys to break out. I think one will. We have backup in the event of injuries or complete failure to the staff: Grayson, Hall, and John Means will all at some point give the team a shot in the arm. If this happens, we can get 90 wins and make the playoffs.

Now if Gibson and Irvin don’t pitch to expectations, if the young starters don’t leap forward or regress - these are all within their probabilities - or if a lot of injuries to the staff occur, then it could get ugly. My pessimistic range was 70 wins.

The reality will be in between, and I want to be optimistic. But I think it all depends on the starting pitching.

Side note: I used to think it was Bradish who would be the breakout starting pitcher, but I’ve switched over to Tyler Wells. He knows how to pitch. Hope they all breakout.

Here’s the opening day roster.

Starting Position Players

C – Adley Rutschman

1B – Ryan Mountcastle

2B – Adam Frazier

SS – Jorge Mateo

3B – Gunnar Henderson

LF – Austin Hays

CF – Cedric Mullins

RF – Kyle Stowers

DH – Anthony Santander

 

On the Bench

C – James McCann

IF – Ramon Urías

OF – Ryan McKenna

UF – Terrin Vavra

 

Starting Pitchers

Kyle Gibbson

Dean Kremer

Cole Irvin

Kyle Bradish

Tyler Wells

Bullpen

Keegan Akin

Bryan Baker

Mike Baumann

Félix Bautista

Danny Coulombe

Joey Krehbiel

Cionel Pérez

Austin Voth

 

Mychal Givens and Dillon Tate, both relief pitchers, will start the season on the Injured Reserve list.  It will be interesting to see who actually gets cut from the bullpen when they come back.

Which players will have great years?  Anthony Santander, Ryan Mountcastle, Adley Rutschman, and Gunnar Henderson.  Gunnar is a rookie, but he’s been labeled as the best prospect in baseball, and it is anticipated he will be Rookie of the Year.  Santander, Mountcastle, and Rutschman could all be potential league Most Valuable Players.

Am I a hopeful fanatic?  You betcha!