On
June 28th Matthew and I drove down to Baltimore (about a three hour drive)
to watch an Orioles game.I hope most of
you remember that I am a Baltimore Orioles fan.Matthew, unfortunately, is not, but he enthusiastically comes to all the
games I go to.I try to go one game a
year down in Baltimore, and I specifically picked that 28th day in
June.The reason was the give-a-way that
game. They were giving away a Cal RipkenJr. bobble head doll but dressed up as Iron Man, the Marvell Comics superhero.
Cal
Ripken is a famous, hall of fame Orioles, and one of the most popular.But he has long retired (2001), but he is now
part of the Orioles ownership and keeps in touch with the fans.His popularity has not faded.Cal was known as “the Iron Man” because he
played in 2632 consecutive games over seventeen years.Can you imagine, seventeen years without
missing a game.It is more than
remarkable.It is superhuman.
So
the Orioles organization came up with a bobble head doll of Cal dressed as the
super hero.Now, truth be told, Iron Man
was my favorite comic book hero as a kid.The identity of Iron Man was a man named Tony Stark, who was an engineer
and designed and invented the Iron Man get up.You may know this from the Iron Man movies.I can’t help but think that part of me went
into engineering because I identified with Tony Stark.
So
when the Iron Man bobble head came out I just had to get it.
Here
are some pictures of the bobble head.
The
detail in the Iron Man uniform is amazing.This is one of the better bobble head dolls.
Oh
about the game.It was another of the
2025 games of a disastrous season.Orioles
lost 11-3 to the Tampa Bay Rays.Not
only that, it was a day game, and the sun and humidity were brutal.I think it was in the 90s with high
humidity.It was a real penance to sit
there.
Tomorrow marks the beginning of the 2025 baseball season, and as you know I am a big
baseball fan.As you also should know, I
am a huge Baltimore Orioles fan.I have
been an Orioles fan since I was eight years old in 1970.That was their greatest year where they ran
away with it all and won the World Series in five games.How could I not be a fan for life at that
point?
From
1970 to today is 54 seasons!Gosh, where
has life gone?I have been intimate with
the Orioles for all these years.Through
thick and thin I have been a devoted fan, and there were some very many thin
years where suffering is putting it mildly.However, they have built a great young team the last few years, and have
made the playoffs the last two.They are
about to take the next step to possibly the World Series, but unfortunately
they have been plagued with quite a few pitching injuries.On the positive side, other teams have also
succumbed to a number of pitching injuries.(The long list of pitching injuries across the majors the last few years
is very mysterious and disconcerting to say the least.)Can the Orioles get back into the playoffs
and take a World Series?Here are my
predictions for the season.
Maybe
this is a good time for my prediction for the season. If you have been reading
my comments, and if you remember, I had laid down a mark of 90 wins as a
prediction. The offense is solid. I think this is an even better offense than
last year where we averaged over 5 runs per game. I think the offense matches
last year and possibly does better. The defense is just as solid. Infield
defense is solid with the question mark of Holliday at second. Hopefully he's
grown and I'll trust those who claim he's a potential superstar. I'll really
believe it when I see it but I tend to believe it. The infield overall is above
average. The outfield defense with the addition of O'Neill and Lauriano is even
better than last year. This outfield could be defensively elite all around. And
I think there is plenty of depth both in the outfield and infield. Catching
between the two is at least average if not a shade above. I have no issues with
our defense at any position.
All
the question marks are in the pitching. With Grayson injured, this starting
staff is pretty average. Without Grayson, there is no top of the rotation
starter. Sugano is a complete unknown, and he looked great until he was crushed
his last start. Morton is good but he's 41 and he was never an ace. Eflin is
our best starter and while he had a great second half last year (that's what
everyone remembers) he's never been a true ace and he's due for regression. The
second half of last season is not his career norm. Povich is a rookie, one
doesn't know how good Grayson will be when he comes back, nor how long he will
last given his injury prone career. I think it was very smart to pick up Kyle
Gibson, and that may prove what gets us into the playoffs. And this staff is
old. Will it be crafty old or tired old? Your guess is as good as mine. All I
know is that, given the ages, the clubhouse refrigerator is going to be stocked
with prune juice.
The
bullpen is an even bigger concern. Bautista will not be Bautista out of the
starting gate. It will take time for him to recover. Kittridge's injury hurts.
Cano handles lefties but is questionable against righties, and he lets an
inordinate amount of inherited runners score. Cionel is inconsistent, so is
Soto. His ERA over the last two years is around 4.50. He looks great at times
and then gets hit. And what can we say about Seranthony. He just had what I
call a California wildfire spring. He was torched worse this spring than the
California forest fires. He came out of spring training with a 19.50 ERA! He
had a 4.45 ERA last year, and slightly better than that the previous year. He
gives up too many home runs. He will have to prove to me he is reliable. Akin
is the only bright spot in the bullpen. I have total trust in Akin and I expect
a great year.
So
does the great offense and defense overcome the questionable pitching? We're
lucky that the other teams in the division have their own question marks. I'm
going to say we get to 90 wins and make the playoffs, but if the pitching
collapses, look for a .500 season. If the pitching does better than I have
projected, then we can beat 90 wins. I hope that is the case.
This
and a series of Matthew Monday posts will document the baseball games Matthew
and I attended this year.I already
mentioned our Father’s Day game at the Staten Island FerryHawks, which is an
Independent Minor League game.Today
I’ll mention our game down in Baltimore on July 28th between my
beloved Baltimore Orioles and the San Diego Padres.We even got to see former Orioles Manny
Machado who had come up as an Orioles and who was traded—traded because he was
going to be a free agent and Orioles weren’t going to pay him that huge salary
he wanted—in 2017.He got a warm
reception.
Here
are some pictures from the game.We were
sitting in left field, not far from the foul pole and just a couple of rows
behind the left field wall.
I
always love a picture of the Warehouse, that great brick building that was
built in Babe Ruth’s day and is situated right behind the right field stands.
And
here’s a couple of pictures of father and son both wearing Orioles tee
shirts.
For the record, Matthew is not, to his father’s dissatisfaction, an Orioles fan.
The
game was great.We got to see the
Orioles win 8-6 with a big six run inning.Now it was Adley Rutschman Bobblehead Day, and we each got an Adley
Bobblehead doll.Now Adley is a switch
hitter, so they had two sets of bobblehead dolls, one batting right handed, the
other left handed.We had hoped that
between the two of us, we would come away with one of each kind.Unfortunately we did.We both got a right handed batting
Adley.Now, where we were sitting, there
was a man who had a whole bunch of boxes with Adley Bobblehead dolls.At least six, if not more.And I have no idea how and where he got them,
and I was afraid to ask.He asked if we
wanted to trade one for the left handed batting Adely and we did!So we got an Adley Bobblehead batting from
each side of the plate.
Here’s
a picture of both Adley dolls.
The
black jersey is Adley left handed and the Orange is right handed. We'll add these to our collection on baseball bobblehead dolls/
A
fun time was had! You can get the detailed box score of this game here.
The
Orioles switched to a six man starting rotation in August to reduce the innings
on their young starter’s arms going into the home stretch for the
playoffs.My gut feel was that the
pitchers pitched worse with the extra day of rest, and so I did an analysis to
convince myself. Bottom line up front: I don’t think the six man rotation had a
negative effect on the starters.Some of
the pitchers had slightly better results with the six man rotation and some
slightly poorer results, but nothing enough for a correlation with the
exception of Jack Flaherty which I’ll get to.
So
here’s what I did.I collected the stats
game by game for each pitcher from August 12th when Irvin was first
inserted into the rotation as the six starter up until September 6th,
the last of the games with a six man rotation.That amounted to four starts for each pitcher except for Flaherty who
was skipped over one start because he couldn’t recuperate from a previous
start.Then I went backward from August
12th to where I collected data for four starts prior to the six man
rotation.That stretched back to July 21st.Now everyone in that time had four starts
except Flaherty who had joined the team on August 1st, and so had
only two starts.Irvin obviously was not
in the rotation and had none, and Tyler Wells had two starts in that span
before he was sent down.I’m not going
to include his numbers.So here is a
pitcher by pitcher summary.
I
provided Irvin’s six man rotation stats because he did a decent job.What to make of it all?You could make an argument that Bradish’s and
Grayson’s stats were improved when in a six man rotation.Kremer’s are a little deceptive because he
recently had a four inning start where he did not give up any runs but actually
did not pitch well.Kremer is about no
difference between the five and six man rotation performance.Gibson was just bad in both rotations, but
perhaps slightly worse with the six man.Flaherty’s two starts in the five man was actually respectable, but he
totally bombed in the six man.Given
Flaherty’s history this year prior to the Orioles, I don’t know if you can
attribute that dramatic a fall off to the extra day rest.
One
could make the argument that the young pitchers had no problem with the six
man, and may have even improved, while the veterans regressed from the six
man.The numbers are too close to make
such a definitive statement.So when you
totaled it all up, the five man staff had an ERA of 3.71 while the six man
staff had an ERA of 3.88.Flaherty’s ERA
elevated the six man.
Overall
I would conclude there was no difference between the five man and six man
rotations.If saving a start for each
pitcher made a difference in their wear and tear, then it was worth it.One caveat, the competition during the six
man rotation was slightly weaker than during the five man.That didn’t get factored in but I doubt it
had that much of an effect.
One
other interesting observation.During
the month and a half and 44 games I analyzed, I didn’t notice a single unearned
run on any starter.All the runs were
earned, which tells you what a good defense we have behind the pitchers.
###
II.
The Orioles Pitching Staff for the Playoffs
Who
will the Orioles select for their playoff pitching staff?I’m going to assume they will designate four
starters, and then it’s a question whether the entire staff will be twelve or
thirteen pitchers.Typically during the
season they carry thirteen but they could decide that in a short series where
you can reconfigure your pitching roster for the next series they will go with
twelve and carry an extra position player.For the purposes of this exercise I will assume they go with thirteen.
One
other caveat, how the pitchers matchup against the opponent, who is unknown at
the moment, can and probably will influence the selections.I can’t factor that in now.
So
for the starting four I have Kyle Bradish, Grayson Rodriguez, Dean Kremer, and
John Means.I guess it could be Gibson
instead of Means, but Gibson has not been pitching well of late and Means has
been acceptable.I think they’ll go with
Means over Gibson.If they don’t then
Means will make the bullpen as a long man replacing Gibson.
There
are four relief pitchers that are absolute given to be on the playoff roster:
Yennier Cano, Cionel Perez, Danny Coulumbe, and Jacob Webb.After these four, the decisions get more
difficult.If the playoff staff will be
thirteen, then you need five more with these nine possibilities:
Mike
Baumann
Kyle
Gibson
Jack
Flaherty
Cole
Irvin
Shintaro
Fujinami
D.L.
Hall
Nick
Vespi
Bryan
Baker
Joey
Krehbiel
I
think Baumann is likely and I think Gibson is probable.He’s the veteran and would serve as the long
man.The staff probably needs one more
left hander and no more, and that means it would be between Irvin, Hall, and
Vespi.Between those three I think it
will be Hall, but Irvin would not be out of the question.Vespi is very unlikely.
That
leaves two right handers to choose between Flaherty, Fuji, Baker, and
Krehbiel.It’s highly unlikely it will
be Krehbiel.Given that Baker is in the
minors right now, the odds are the Orioles will select Flaherty and Fuji.But I don’t know.None of the three have been consistent.I’m sure the rest of the regular season games
will have a good deal of input to the decision.If they go with a twelve man staff and can only could pick one of the
three, who would you pick?As it stands
right now I would probably pick Baker, but there are ten regular season games
still to play.
Here
are the likely thirteen: Bradish, Rodriguez, Kremer, Means, Cano, Perez,
Coulumbe, Webb, Baumann, Gibson, Hall, Fuji, Flaherty.I’m sure I will be surprised.My wild card unexpected pick that will
replace one of the two last names there is Bryan Baker.
Note:
Since I wrote the above, Tyler Wells has returned from the minors and is in the
pitching mix.He just pitched well, and
I’m going to assume he will also be in the mix of the thirteen pitchers.My guess is he will replace Flaherty in the
thirteen I selected.
###
III.
Assessing the Orioles Offensive Consistency
A
number of people have complained the orioles offense is inconsistent, scoring
double digit runs one game, held to one or two the next night.I brainstormed a week-to-week OPS assessment
and its standard deviation as a means of trying to figure out if they are
consistent or not.I knew it wouldn’t be
easy for me to get week-to-week OPS statistics but Baseball Reference does
provide monthly OPS.Now week-to-week
might be a finer measure but monthly would provide a decent understanding of
offensive consistency.So here is the
Orioles monthly OPS.
April.761
May.734
June.730
July.716
Aug.781
Sept.781
This
works out to an average OPS of .751 with a monthly standard deviation of .028.
Not
knowing how that compares across the league I did the same for some of our
competitors.I’m not going to provide
their monthly numbers (you can find them in their batting splits) but it’s in my
spreadsheet.Here are the results for
four other teams.
Rays:
average OPS, .766, monthly S.D., .071
Blue
Jays: ave OPS, .742, monthly S.D., .020
Astros:
ave OPS, .772, S.D., .062
Braves:
ave OPS, .844, S.D., .061
Rays,
Astros, and Braves all have a higher OPS than the Orioles but more than double
a standard deviation.On a monthly
basis, those teams’ offenses fluctuated more than twice the Orioles.Side note on the Braves, though they
fluctuated more than the Orioles, every month showed higher production than the
Orioles.They are a beast of a
team.Blue Jays had a lower OPS than the
Orioles but slightly more consistent month to month.
I
found this interesting.As I said, such
an analysis by week-to-week would be more applicable but even so I don’t think
the Orioles have an inconsistent offense.
###
Finally,
the Orioles with just over a week to go in the season have clinched a playoff
spot as a wildcard, but they are still fighting to hold on to the top spot in American
League East Division.This really
wonderful video was put together to commemorate making the playoffs after four
or five of the worst years any team has had to suffer through.Enjoy it.
I
am such an Orioles fan, since I was eight years old in 1970.This video brings tears to my eyes.Yes, it’s possible we could win the World
Series this year.Stay tuned.
On
August 5th, Matthew and I traveled down to Baltimore to an Orioles
game.I specifically wanted to go on
this day for two reasons.
First,
it was famed Orioles player and inductee of the Baseball Hall of Fame, Eddie
Murray’s bobble head doll night.I
wanted one!After Brooks Robinson, Eddie
Murray is my all-time favorite Orioles.I remember him as a rookie in 1977, when he won American League Rookie
of the Year award, and he went on to have an incredible career.He was the backbone of the team from that
1977 season to their World Series win in 1983 to his ultimately being traded in
1988.Steady Eddie, quiet Eddie Murray,
he was humble, hardworking and unassuming.Besides his great baseball statistics, it was his quiet strength that
always appealed to me the most.
The
second reason for going to that particular game was because it was a commemoration
for the 40th anniversary of the Orioles last World Series win in
1983.That was the last of a great
series of years for the Orioles that spanned my youth.I became an Orioles fan as an seven year old
in 1970.In 1983 I was 21 during the
baseball season, and it was the most glorious of Orioles seasons.After 1983, the team fell apart, management was
horrible, and except for a couple of notable years where they made the
playoffs, the Orioles were mostly not a competitive team.(Until this year, but that is for the future
to work out still.)With the culmination
of the World Series win in 1983, baseball for me would never quite be the
same.
So
on August 5th, with every living player who was announced at the anniversary,
tears would quell in my eyes until they actually streamed down.I loved those players.They were like family.
Here’s
a news clip from CBS News, Baltimore.
In
that 1983 World Series, in the final game, Eddie hit two homers, and here are
clips of them.
Here
are some pictures I took from the 40th anniversary ceremony.I’ve got pictures of everyone, but I’ll spare
you to just a couple.Eddie Murray being
introduced.
Rick
Dempsey, the team’s catcher, the MVP of that World Series, and team clown here
leading the fans in the Orioles chant from that year, a bodily representation
of each letter of O-R-I-O-L-E-S.I think
he is spelling “R” here.
And
here is the entire team.
A
picture of Matthew and me with the beautiful Camden Yards ballpark in the
background.
And
finally a picture of the Eddie Murray bobble head doll.
Today—this
afternoon, actually—begins the 2023 baseball season, and the Orioles will play
their first game at Boston against the Red Sox.There is much excitement in Orioles fans this year, and I’m no
different!Last year I mentionedhow they had a miraculous season, their first winning season in six years, and
three of those years with some of the worst winning percentage in the history
of the game.All those losing seasons
gave us some great draft picks, and new General Manager, Mike Elias, really
knows how to draft.So last year we went
83-79 and just missed the playoffs.This
year we expect to make the playoffs, even though the predictions from the “experts”
has us with a losing record again.
But
hope springs eternal in the human breast, especially in the breast of baseball
fans!
Here’s
what I’m predicting for the 2023 season.
I
am predicting 90 wins, and that is going with the optimistic end of my range.
The key in my thinking is the starting pitching. There is enough offense there
(though that Franchy Cordero bat from spring training performance could really
help) to contend, and the defense is superb. I think the position players are
solid. The bullpen is good to excellent. I don’t know if they will repeat from
last year’s performance, but definitely I think above average.
The
starting pitching is the unknown. Gibson and Irvin, if they have expected
years, are around .500 percentage pitchers who can give you innings. You don’t
know what you’re going to get from Kremer, Bradish, and Wells. To make the
playoffs I think two have to average to a .500 percentage while one has to leap
to a TOR performance. We need one of these guys to break out. I think one will.
We have backup in the event of injuries or complete failure to the staff:
Grayson, Hall, and John Means will all at some point give the team a shot in
the arm. If this happens, we can get 90 wins and make the playoffs.
Now
if Gibson and Irvin don’t pitch to expectations, if the young starters don’t
leap forward or regress - these are all within their probabilities - or if a
lot of injuries to the staff occur, then it could get ugly. My pessimistic
range was 70 wins.
The
reality will be in between, and I want to be optimistic. But I think it all
depends on the starting pitching.
Side
note: I used to think it was Bradish who would be the breakout starting
pitcher, but I’ve switched over to Tyler Wells. He knows how to pitch. Hope
they all breakout.
Here’s
the opening day roster.
Starting
Position Players
C
– Adley Rutschman
1B
– Ryan Mountcastle
2B
– Adam Frazier
SS
– Jorge Mateo
3B
– Gunnar Henderson
LF
– Austin Hays
CF
– Cedric Mullins
RF
– Kyle Stowers
DH
– Anthony Santander
On
the Bench
C
– James McCann
IF
– Ramon Urías
OF
– Ryan McKenna
UF
– Terrin Vavra
Starting
Pitchers
Kyle
Gibbson
Dean
Kremer
Cole
Irvin
Kyle
Bradish
Tyler
Wells
Bullpen
Keegan
Akin
Bryan
Baker
Mike
Baumann
Félix
Bautista
Danny
Coulombe
Joey
Krehbiel
Cionel
Pérez
Austin
Voth
Mychal
Givens and Dillon Tate, both relief pitchers, will start the season on the
Injured Reserve list.It will be interesting
to see who actually gets cut from the bullpen when they come back.
Which
players will have great years?Anthony
Santander, Ryan Mountcastle, Adley Rutschman, and Gunnar Henderson.Gunnar is a rookie, but he’s been labeled as
the best prospect in baseball, and it is anticipated he will be Rookie of the
Year.Santander, Mountcastle, and Rutschman
could all be potential league Most Valuable Players.
If
you haven’t noticed, my blogging had been reduced the last few months.It was baseball season!I just don’t have the free time to do both in
a constructive manner.This year I had
resolved to keep up with the blog at all costs but my favorite team made this
season so enjoyable that the resolution went down the drain.For those that may remember, I happen to be a
Baltimore Orioles fan.A very long suffering
Baltimore Orioles fan.Sure they had
their glory years from 1966 to 1983 when I was a kid and got hooked on the team,
but since then it’s been way more losing seasons than winning.And the last three of four years they lost over
100 games each year, having the worst record in all of baseball all three of
those years.The only exception was
2020, which was Covid shortened.But
they would have lost 100 games then too.
So
it’s been tough.But this year they
became the first team in history to have a winning record after losing over 100
games the previous season.In fact they
nearly made the playoffs, just falling short by three games.They started that first month just like the
previous years, pathetically losing, but after April they started to have
winning month after winning month.They
didn’t have any star pitchers.Their ace
(John Means) was actually injured from April on and out for the season.They really didn’t have any superstar hitters
either.A couple of their young
prospects (Adley Rutschman especially) were promoted to the majors and that
turned it around.They won with really
good defense and an exceptional bullpen and a lot of hustle.The starting pitchers would hold the
opposition in the early innings; the defense would pull out plays to save the
game; the bullpen would shut the opposition down in the late innings; and the
team would amazingly pull out quite a number of late inning victories.What a joy!
You can get a summary of the Orioles' 2022 season here.
They
ended the season with a record of 83-79.But they also played in the toughest division in baseball, the American League
East.Sometimes referred to as the
American League Beast.Three of the five
teams made the playoffs.If the Orioles
played in any other division I think they would have made the playoffs.Was it a disappointment they didn’t?Sure, but there were too many thrills that in
the end it didn’t matter.There were too
many thrills.What a thoroughly
enjoyable season. Last year I complained the development was taking too long.
This year they caught up. There was no stepping stone from 100 losses to .500,
but so be it. This is where the development plan should be. In fairness, I
think Covid did set everything back about a year. In the end, this became one
of the most memorable of seasons. To go from a 100+ loss team to above .500 is
great. Yes, I know there is always criticism, but nothing is perfect, except in
heaven. Overall from the very top to the lowest ball boy, this team needs to be
commended. Thank you 2022 Orioles.Next
year we’ll make the playoffs!
###
Some
random thoughts on next year and the off season.
As
to the off season acquisitions, I'm not sure this team needs that much. We're
going to have Gunnar Henderson and Adley for a full year and more mature.
Hopefully Ryan Mountcastle shakes the sophomore blues and hits his potential. Jordan
Westburg at second base should be a plus. Austin Hays gets better and platoons
with Kyle Stowers, who will be more mature. Grayson Rodriguez comes up and John
Means returns. Tyler Wells, Kyle Bradish, and Dean Kremer improve. This looks
like a very solid team.
I
guess you could use a big bat at DH behind Mountcastle. A Trey Mancini type but
the Trey of several years ago who hit 35 homers. Otherwise I don't think there
is a lot to change.
We
could use a backup first baseman.If
Westburg could play first base, that would solve a lot of problems. I wonder
why Terrin Vavra hasn't tried backing up first base. That would put it over the
top for him.
###
Thinking
this over for next year, most teams will field 13 pitchers and 13 fielders. So
other than the starting nine hitters, there are four backups.
You
need a backup catcher, Robinson Charinos or whoever they pick up.
A
fifth outfielder, Ryan McKenna.
A
back up infielder who can play first base.
A
utility player, perhaps Vavra.
Out
of the starting nine, I would think Urias may be the weakest argument for
starting but he might be a better choice for utility player over Vavra. Maybe.
I think the rest of the eight are definite unless they get traded.
McKenna
is probably not guaranteed. We have a few outfielders waiting in AAA.
Rougned Odor is probably not picked up, especially if
Westburg is ready for the majors. But, and I may be in a very small minority on
this, if it comes down to picking two between Vavra, Odor, and Urias, I would
pick Odor and Urias.Remember Odor drove
in over 50 RBIs. It's not how high you hit but what you do with the hits you
get. Plus Odor was the heart and soul of the team this year.
I have to say, the bullpen is really solid.I hope they all come back, but you can never
have too much pitching.Hopefully we can
pick up another top relief pitcher.
We'll
see where General Manager Michael Elias goes. I can see Elias trading one of
our outfielders, but remember no one is going to want your weakest outfielder.
If they are going to trade value, they will want value back.
Here are some of the great highlights of a remarkable year.
Now can you blame me for being glued to the Orioles the past few months?
###
It
will be an interesting off-season, but I really can’t wait until next seasons
starts!