Baseball 2020 season is over. We hardly knew you! The Covid virus, as you may know, shortened the season to sixty games. The Los Angeles Dodgers beat the Tampa Bay Rays tp wo the World Series. The Los Angeles media made a big deal of the Dodgers finally winning after thirty-two years. Well, my beloved Baltimore Orioles haven’t won the World Series since 1983, which makes it thirty-seven years. So you can understand how we Orioles fans have suffered.
Well, you can see the improvement: 119 to 108 to 95. The improvement was tangible actually. It was a fun season, and for most of the season they were on a better pace than losing 95 games. It was only a late season slump which made the numbers worse.
This blog post is a summary of comments I made on an Orioles blog, Steve Melewski On The Orioles concerning what was good in 2020 and what wasn’t. I’m not going to link my comments to a specific posts, just provide them.
The Offense:
Yes, from a big picture perspective, I see it the improvement. Offense definitely improved. Loss of Santander and late season slumps hurt. Don't forget Pat Valaika's offensive contributions were big. He wound up with a .791 OPS. I still maintain he should be the starting second baseman.
From
an individual player level, let me just rate them in this way:
Improved
or exceeded expectations:
Santander, Iglesias, Mountcastle, Nunez, Valaika, Mullins.
Sisco,
Severino
Disappointing
or under achievers:
Alberto,
Ruiz, Chris Davis
Not
enough data:
Stewart, Hays, Urias,
Severino could easily have been in the exceeded expectations category if it weren't for the last three weeks. I guess he fell into where he would have been expected. He had to bi-polar seasons. I guess in statistics that would be a double-humped distribution. Which is the real Sevvy? I think it's more of the beginning of the year.
I could have put Sisco in the disappointing column, however his OBP was excellent, which pushed his OPS into respectability despite his low batting average. I guess a walk is as good as a hit. Since Adley will not be ready next year I think we go with the same catching duo.
DJ Stewart is an interesting one to look at. He only had 88 ABs and his batting eye is superb. He definitely has power and that's a good thing. I doubt he will ever contend for a batting title, but I could see Stewart develop into about a .230 hitter with high OBP and a respectful OPS. I think he just needs more time.
Mullins turned into a really nice surprise. That's a respectful batting average, and he got his slugging up too. He's definitely a major league hitter from the left side, which makes him a platoon player probably. His numbers would be a little better if he could improve his OBP. And I have to say, he is a joy to watch in the outfield. He can run down shots to the outfield with anyone.
Nunez improved slightly but I'll take that power any day. He was struggling a little down the stretch. Was he playing hurt? It seemed that way. I really see Nunez as the next Edwin Encarnacion. 30-40 homer power, drives in runs, and has a respectable batting average. He hits the ball hard, so I can see that improving.
Hays showed signs again of breaking out but injured again. Is this going to happen every year?
I
don't know what to say about Ruiz. Good fielder with some power but low batting
average, low OBP. Can he get better? He's still only 26, but time is running
out for him.
We can definitely upgrade at third base.
Hanser Alberto is my biggest disappointment. At the end of last year going into this year I was a skeptic on his hitting, despite hitting over .300 last year. Then he started out on fire and I reversed myself and said he was for real. And then it was just downhill disappointment. He does not have high exit velocity, which makes his hitting somewhat lucky. He does not have power. And he does not walk. He is not for real. He wound up with a .698 OPS. Anyone on the team with a below .700 OPS has to be consider needing to be replaced.
And the person to replace Alberto at second is Pat Valaika. What a find! Will he repeat? I don't know, but he's earned the starting job at second in my opinion. He needs to bone up on his defense but if he can focus on one position I think that would help. The more he played the better he got. A .791 OPS and hit in the clutch! I fell in love with Pat.
I don't really have anything to add regarding Santander, Iglesias, Mountcastle.
And Chris Davis is self-explanatory. With Mancini out and expanded rosters, there was a place for him this year. He’s got to be off the team next year.
Those are my concluding thoughts on the hitters. I'll get to the pitching when Steve has a post on that.
###
Starting Pitching:
Did the starting pitching really improve? I guess slightly. True, the starter’s ERA went down a half run but remember this was only a sixty game season. Pitchers tire over 162 games and we didn’t that this year. Plus we had a better outfield defense which could have saved some runs, and, perhaps the important hidden statistic, the improved bullpen could have saved runs because (1) the starting pitcher could be taken out earlier before more runs were scored, and (2) the bullpen could have prevented inherited runners from scoring. I think the improved ERA is deceptive.
Also having Cobb for a full year for a change was a plus. His 53 innings would have projected to 143 for a real season. Would he have lasted the entire 162 games? I don’t know but he’s as frail as my 86 year old mother who now is averaging a hospital visit every six months. Looking ahead, ideally Cobb could be a good trade piece for a team competing. Unless we’re competing next year, I would trade him if a reasonable offer comes our way this winter. He ended the season healthy. He may not be by next year’s trade deadline.
John Means is for real. Once he overcame his personal issues which had to be a major distraction and then overcame some minor injuries, he pitched even better than last year. He’s an elite pitcher who is a real number one ace. I don’t follow the business aspects of baseball but we might want to sign him long term now if it will be a bargain in the future.
Akin and Kremer were young, bright spots. I can see Akin being a mid-rotation starter. Kremer has the potential for better than mid. Now that’s potential, but I would not be surprised if they regress. They only had a handful of games each in the majors. Can they sustain a full regular season? I’m skeptical of course. You have to be. Right now both have to be considered back end starters for next year but we better have some backup plans.
Jorge Lopez was a good pickup and for a while it looked like he realized the potential he was supposed to have. Then he got rocked and his ERA ended no different than his historical over six runs per game. You have to hope that his well-pitched games were more indicative of his future than his ending ERA, but on that too I would be skeptical. He’ll have his chance once again next year.
LeBlanc didn’t prove out. Milone was a nice pickup and a nice flip for a trade. Is he a free agent again? Should we consider re-signing him if he is? I would. We’re going to need arms for a 162 game season.
Right now we have Means, Cobb, Lopez, Akin, and Kremer as starters. We’re going to need at least eight over the course of the year given Akin and Kremer have never been through 162 games. Who else? Eschleman I guess. He improved this year. There’s nothing impressive about his stuff but he was decent. You could give Zimmerman a try as starter. He didn’t get a full chance yet. Valdez maybe as starter. Some of the younger arms will be moving up next year but I doubt in the first half.
We need to sign starters just so we have enough arms to make it through a 162 game season. Starting pitching is our weakest part of the game. It’s what prevents us for competing for a wildcard spot.
###
Relief Pitching:
The bullpen was excellent this year. I could see it coming together from the developments at the end of 2019. Going from the 2019 ERA of 5.79 to 3.90 may be the single most important stat for our improved record this year. Relief pitchers in today's game pitch over 50% of the total innings. Having a good to great bullpen is an absolute must.
Can we get better? I think so. I would take Paul Frey's, Tanner Scott's, Dillon Tate's, Travis Laskin's, and Shawn Armstrong's numbers next year exactly as they were this year. But I can also see Scott's, Tate's and Laskin's numbers improving still. Cole Solser is not a closer - he was in the wrong role - but with better situational calls he should improve, and perhaps improve quite a bit.
Hunter Harvey needs to have an injury free season. He's going to be known as the bullpen version of Alex Cobb. He's got great stuff. He definitely could be the shutdown closer every team needs. I have to believe we will see much more of a contribution from Hunter next year. Dillon Tate too needs to get injury free. Hunter and Tate have potentially dominating stuff, as does Tanner Scott. Those three have the potential to be elite relief pitchers.
I also liked how Brandon Kline pitched this year. I think he showed us he can pitch in the majors. He just needs to rack up more innings and experience.
What can you say about Valdez? He's a surprise to all. Will he be our closer again? Why not? He got the job done to my surprise. I don't know if he'll improve but I hope he doesn't come down to reality.
As good as the bullpen was this year, I think it could be even better next year.
If we're so rich in bullpen assets, do we trade some to improve other parts of our game? We do have more pitchers coming out of the minors trying to push their way up. It's probably a good possibility we will trade some.
###
Below are my answers to Steve Melewski’s “10 Questions for O’s Fans.”
The Questions:
1) Anthony Santander was
voted Most Valuable Oriole by the media that cover the club. Would he have
gotten your vote or would it be someone else?
2) Cole Sulser led the
club with five saves. Who will lead the 2021 O’s in saves?
3) Who are two or three
pitchers yet to make the majors you can foresee getting a shot to make at least
one start next year?
4) Which two teams will
play in the World Series and who wins?
5) We saw a 16-team field
this year. How many teams will make the playoffs next year?
6) Will Chris Davis be on
the roster on opening day?
7) Predict the month and
year that Adley Rutschman makes his major league debut.
8) Should Major League
Baseball continue to place a runner at second base for extra-inning games?
9) Who will make the most
starts batting leadoff for the Orioles in 2021?
10) In what year will the O’s return to the playoffs?
My answers:
1) No. I believe Jose Iglesias should have been the MVO. They both had shortened seasons because of injuries but they both wound up with nearly the same number of at bats. Iglesias had a much higher OPS and his defense at short is worth way more than Santander's in right. And Iglesias was the veteran who the team turned for leadership.
2) I'm going to go with Tanner Scott, but I can also see Dillon Tate being the closer.
3) Hard to say since there wasn't really a minor league season this year. I guess Baumann. Maybe Lowther. Maybe one of the recent pickups from the trades.
4) Dodgers will beat the Rays in seven.
5) 16 teams making the playoffs is a disgrace. Three division winners plus one wildcard for each league, and the wildcard can be selected by a one game playoff between the two best records that did not win a division. I think of that as one wildcard winner. But if you want to count that as two, then it's five teams from each league.
6) I can't see it. No.
7) September 2021
8) Hell no. It's unearned. Why don't you make it so every inning start this way if it's so interesting and exciting. Bull dung. It's a corruption of the game.
9) Cedric Mullins. He's an above average left handed hitter.
10) 2021 if starting pitching shocks us. It's really what's holding us back from a .500 record. Realistically, 2022.
One
re-assessment:
After reading everyone’s
comments, I have been persuaded to change one, number seven. Yeah, it’s
unlikely Adley makes the majors next year. Probably 2022 and by the All Star
game.
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